Nobody wants to go an entire season without a win in their conference especially in the SEC. This may be the most winnable game for Kentucky who is on 12 days rest to prepare to win the one game they have the best shot at. They are 11 point under dogs mainly due to the fact that they have gone 1-5 while Miss State is 3-3. Kentucky's stats are not good, but having to play 4 straight top 20 opponents will make anyone's stats weaker than they actually are. Kentucky had to play Louisville, Florida, South Carolina and most recently Alabama losing 49-7 which set us up well on this spread. Kentucky actually hung in there against Louisville, Florida and South Carolina and I think they will have an opportunity to win against Miss State team that has not been great this year. If Jalen Whitlow was 100% at QB I would probably make this a maximum play.
When you look at both teams they are actually rather pretty similar. Both rely to run the ball first and have a two QB system while both defense has struggled to stop the run. I'm not so sure that Kentucky isn't better at both. Their strength of schedule has been brutal compared with Miss State that barely hung on vs. a MAC team in Bowling Green at home. Kentucky has clearly made progress under Stoops although the results do not show it so the public is backing Miss State big and giving us value on the line. I'm not throwing many stats out here because the SOS is just not comparable with Miss State playing LSU and a subpar Okl State team and a decent but over rated Auburn team. It's still worth mentioning that Miss State's defense is allowing 70% touchdowns in the red zone and Kentucky has more of a balanced offense then Miss State does and Kentucky has turned the ball over only 6 times this year. Either way this game should be close and there is a ton of value on Kentucky pulling the upset.
